// NBA · Wednesday 11 November 2026
Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets prediction
Start 9:30pm ET ·
- Pick
- Houston Rockets
- Chance
- 63%
- Light
- Orange
- Confidence
- Medium
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Golden State Warriors 108 – 115 Houston Rockets. Our pick, Houston Rockets, won ✓.
Recent results
- Golden State Warriors: 5 wins from the last 5, average margin +18.6 points (W 138–87 v NO, W 126–119 v ORL, W 120–100 v MIA, W 116–113 v PHX, W 124–112 v LAC).
- Houston Rockets: 3 wins from the last 5, average margin +6.8 points (W 110–100 v DEN, L 99–102 @ PHX, L 107–117 v MIN, W 109–93 v BOS, W 119–98 v OKC).
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Houston Rockets are our pick at home against the Golden State Warriors. The model gives them a 63% chance of winning, which makes this game a lean (55 to 65%).
Golden State Warriors rate slightly stronger on the rosters we expect (98.0 to 94.3 on our team-strength rating), but home court push the pick to Houston Rockets.
Recent form: Golden State Warriors have been winning by 6.5 points a game, while Houston Rockets have been winning by 6.7 points a game.
Injuries: Golden State Warriors will be without Jimmy Butler III (31 min a game), Moses Moody (28 min a game), Kristaps Porzingis (23 min a game) and Brandon Williams (16 min a game) and Houston Rockets will be without Clint Capela (15 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Golden State Warriors are 8–5 and Houston Rockets are 10–3.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Rockets beat the Warriors 115–108 in Houston. Kevin Durant scored 20, and Alperen Şengün had 19 points, 13 rebounds and 9 assists. Golden State's Yaxel Lendeborg scored 25 with 10 rebounds and Brandin Podziemski added 22. The Warriors made 17 threes but shot 36 of 88 overall, to Houston's 44 of 87.
What the model got right
We picked Houston at 63%, and the Rockets won. Honestly, neither of the model's main inputs explains the lean: form was level (both teams winning by about 6 a game) and our strength rating had Golden State ahead. Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody, Gary Payton II, Kristaps Porziņģis and Brandon Williams were out for Golden State, as the preview expected.
What didn't work
Our team-strength rating had Golden State ahead (98.0 to 94.3), and the Warriors won the rebounds 48 to 40 and made 17 threes. Houston won because it shot much better overall, 44 of 87 against 36 of 88, which the model could not see in advance.
Why
A 63% chance still loses about 3 games in 10, and the rating pointed the other way, so this is a reminder that the model's reasons don't always agree with each other.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Wed, 11 NovBoston Celtics @ Toronto Raptors BOS 56%Orange✓ 98–93
- Wed, 11 NovCleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks NY 66%Green✕ 115–107
- Wed, 11 NovWashington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers IND 62%Super — best value✓ 101–114
- Wed, 11 NovLos Angeles Lakers @ Milwaukee Bucks LAL 86%Green✓ 123–112
- Wed, 11 NovSan Antonio Spurs @ Chicago Bulls SA 84%Green✓ 124–119
- Wed, 11 NovBrooklyn Nets @ New Orleans Pelicans NO 75%Super — best value✕ 145–111
- Wed, 11 NovDenver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies DEN 53%Red✓ 123–118
- Wed, 11 NovOrlando Magic @ Utah Jazz ORL 60%Orange✓ 123–108
- Wed, 11 NovOklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers POR 52%Red✓ 108–118
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.