// lights · by sport
How the lights work
Every pick gets a coloured light so you can see, at a glance, how strongly the model rates its own call. The cut-offs are not the same in every sport, and that is deliberate. A 55% call in a two-way sport (one team or the other wins) is only a lean. In a three-way football match, with a draw on the table, 55% is already a strong favourite.
We do not move these cut-offs to chase a short run of results. A light tells you how confident the model was at the time, on that sport's own scale.
NBA, NFL and NHL
Super — best value. NBA only. This is a value flag, not a higher-confidence green. It marks a pick where the bookmaker price beats our fair price.
65% or more. One of our top picks, on confidence alone.
A lean, 55 to 65%.
Under 55%. Close to a coin flip.
Green, orange and red are about how likely the model thinks the pick is. Super is different: an NBA pick only gets Super when the model is at least 60% on the side, that chance is at least 3 points above the sharp market's no-margin price, and the best Australian bookmaker price is at least 3% better than our fair price (with a cap on how large that gap can be). If key players are listed as uncertain, a value pick is held back: it keeps its normal confidence light — so a 63% pick stays orange — and we add a note that it would have been Super except for those injuries. The NFL and NHL use the same 65 / 55 confidence scale and do not have a Super flag.
In a 2025–26 test of 162 Super games, the picks won 63% and beat the closing price by about +0.7%. Staking return was about break-even.
Premier League and Championship
55% or more. A genuine favourite in a three-way market.
A lean, 45 to 55%.
Under 45%. The match is open, and a draw is a real third result.
Green starts at 55% because a draw is possible. In the Premier League and the Championship the model publishes three chances — home, draw and away — and the pick is the most likely of those three. A 55% side in that setting is already clearer than a 55% side in the NBA.
Premier League lights apply only to matches kicking off from 23 October 2026, 23:42 UTC. Earlier Premier League picks stay on the record without a light; we do not go back and re-colour them. Championship picks have been lit from the first live round.
Tennis
70% or more. A clear favourite.
A lean, 60 to 70%.
Under 60%. In tennis that really does mean a close match: favourites win often, so the bar for a top pick is higher.
There is no draw in a completed singles match. Favourites also win more often than in team sports, so green starts at 70% and a red light is a genuinely tight call rather than a coin-flip team game.
What a light is not
- A light is not a staking plan, and the public record does not keep units.
- A green pick can still lose. A 70% call is meant to miss about three times in ten.
- Lights are assigned from the frozen pre-start chance. They are not changed after the result.
Results for every sport → · How it works → · Backtest — not live results → · Accuracy and calibration →