ProbaLab runs a proprietary data model for each sport. For the NBA it rates every player from recent box scores, weighted toward recent games. Before each game it reads the official injury report, works out the minutes each team is likely to play, and turns that into a team strength for tonight. That is blended with a long-run team rating, recent form, rest and back-to-backs to give each side a win probability.

The model was tested on the 2025–26 season game by game, using only information available before each tip-off. Its percentages lined up with real results: picks given 70–75% won 74% of the time.

NFL: the model rates every team from results and winning margins, adds home field and rest, and checks who is expected to start at quarterback (a backup or inexperienced starter counts against a team). Tested on the 2021–2025 seasons, it picked 65% of winners, and its percentages matched results: games rated 70–75% were won 73% of the time.

The lights

Fair and value prices

Fair price is what the win probability is worth as decimal odds: 1 ÷ probability. A 70% pick has a fair price of $1.43. Value at $X or better adds a 3% margin. A price below it isn't worth taking on our numbers.

Beating the close

For tips, we compare the price at the time of the tip with the final market price at tip-off. Beating the close consistently is the clearest sign a prediction is ahead of the market. We show it as a percentage after each game.

Our rules

• Every pick is timestamped before tip-off and locked at tip-off.
• Losses stay on the record. Nothing is removed.
• We publish probabilities, not guarantees. A 70% pick loses three times in ten.
• No bookmaker links, codes or affiliate deals.
• All times are shown in your own time zone.