// NBA · Wednesday 11 November 2026
Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies prediction
Start 8:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- Denver Nuggets
- Chance
- 53%
- Light
- Red
- Confidence
- Low
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Denver Nuggets 123 – 118 Memphis Grizzlies. Our pick, Denver Nuggets, won ✓.
Recent results
- Denver Nuggets: 3 wins from the last 5, average margin +4.0 points (L 100–110 @ HOU, W 114–102 @ IND, W 128–109 v TOR, L 110–118 v POR, W 127–120 @ PHX).
- Memphis Grizzlies: 2 wins from the last 5, average margin +2.2 points (W 118–102 @ TOR, L 97–128 v OKC, L 103–107 v IND, L 134–135 v NO, W 136–105 v SAC).
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Denver Nuggets are our pick on the road against the Memphis Grizzlies. The model gives them a 53% chance of winning, which makes this game close to a coin flip (under 55%).
On the rosters we expect, Denver Nuggets rate as the stronger team (96.1 to 95.0 on our team-strength rating), and that is the main reason for the pick.
Recent form: Denver Nuggets have been winning by 2.2 points a game, while Memphis Grizzlies have been losing by 1.3 points a game.
Injuries: Memphis Grizzlies will be without Scotty Pippen Jr. (16 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Denver Nuggets are 7–4 and Memphis Grizzlies are 9–4.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Nuggets beat the Grizzlies 123–118 in Memphis. Jamal Murray scored 30 with 8 assists, and Nikola Jokić had 27 points, 11 rebounds and 8 assists. Denver shot 49 of 98 from the floor. Memphis made 17 threes, and Jaylen Wells and Ty Jerome each scored 22.
What the model got right
We picked Denver at only 53%, so this was close to a coin flip. The model had Denver slightly stronger (96.1 to 95.0) and in slightly better form. Julian Strawther was out for Denver and Scotty Pippen Jr. and Quinten Post for Memphis, as expected.
What didn't work
The model could not really separate these teams, and the game stayed close to the end. Memphis shot better from three than Denver, but Denver's 49 made field goals made the difference.
Why
At 53% the pick says very little, and a five-point result in either direction would have looked equally reasonable. This one doesn't tell us much about the model.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Wed, 11 NovBoston Celtics @ Toronto Raptors BOS 56%Orange✓ 98–93
- Wed, 11 NovCleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks NY 66%Green✕ 115–107
- Wed, 11 NovWashington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers IND 62%Super — best value✓ 101–114
- Wed, 11 NovLos Angeles Lakers @ Milwaukee Bucks LAL 86%Green✓ 123–112
- Wed, 11 NovSan Antonio Spurs @ Chicago Bulls SA 84%Green✓ 124–119
- Wed, 11 NovBrooklyn Nets @ New Orleans Pelicans NO 75%Super — best value✕ 145–111
- Wed, 11 NovOrlando Magic @ Utah Jazz ORL 60%Orange✓ 123–108
- Wed, 11 NovGolden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets HOU 63%Orange✓ 108–115
- Wed, 11 NovOklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers POR 52%Red✓ 108–118
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.