About ProbaLab

Our GREEN picks are 18 from 22 this NBA season

ProbaLab is a free sports prediction site. Every NBA game gets a win probability from our own data model, and the strongest picks are marked GREEN. So far this season, 18 of our 22 GREEN picks have won. Across every NBA game we have called, we are 43 from 67.

Those numbers include the misses. Nothing gets removed from the record.

What ProbaLab does

The model rates every player from recent box scores, reads the live injury report, and blends team strength, form and schedule into one number for each game. That number is the chance we give each team to win.

Picks are timestamped before game time and then frozen. When the game finishes, the result goes on the record, right or wrong.

We publish probabilities, not certainties. A 70% pick still loses about three times in ten, and we want you to see that happen in the record rather than hear about it later.

What the lights mean

Every pick carries a light, so you can see at a glance how strongly the model leans.

SUPER: The model is confident (60%+) and rates the team well above its usual level. Our strongest picks.
GREEN: The model gives the pick 65% or more. One of our top picks.
ORANGE: A lean, 55 to 65%.
RED: Under 55%. Close to a coin flip.

How we check ourselves

Our record page shows every finished game. We also track calibration: if the model says 70%, those picks should win about 70% of the time. Tested on the 2021 to 2025 seasons, the model picked 65% of winners, and games rated 70 to 75% were won 73% of the time. You can see how the live season is tracking on the record page.

What we cover

NBA is our main focus, and every game is on the site with its own page. We also publish NFL win probabilities, with NHL and Premier League coming.

ProbaLab is free to use and is supported by advertising.