// NFL · Week 8 · Sunday 1 November 2026
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins prediction
Kick-off 4:25pm ET ·
- Pick
- New England Patriots
- Chance
- 71%
- Light
- Green
- Confidence
- High
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: New England Patriots 24 – 19 Miami Dolphins. Our pick, New England Patriots, won ✓.
Our pre-game preview
New England Patriots are our pick on the road against the Miami Dolphins in Week 8. The model gives them a 71% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ top pick.
New England Patriots have the higher team rating (1609 to 1373), built from results and winning margins.
Quarterbacks: we expect Drake Maye to start for New England Patriots (39 career starts); we expect Malik Willis to start for Miami Dolphins (12 career starts). We assume each team's most recent starter plays unless the injury report says otherwise.
Season so far: New England Patriots are 5–3 and Miami Dolphins are 1–6.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Patriots beat the Dolphins 24–19 on the road. Drake Maye completed 16 of 20 passes for 199 yards with 2 touchdowns, and Rhamondre Stevenson ran for 82 yards on 19 carries. For the Dolphins, Malik Willis completed 21 of 32 passes for 211 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception.
What the model got right
The model gave the Patriots a 71% chance on the road, mainly because of their higher team rating (1609 to 1373), and they won by 5. Both starting quarterbacks were the ones the preview expected: Drake Maye for the Patriots and Malik Willis for the Dolphins.
What didn't work
Not much went against the model in this one. The Dolphins kept it to a one-score game, so it was never comfortable.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, the team rating. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 71%, about 3 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NFL predictions that day
- Sun, 1 NovTennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals CIN 83%Green✓ 36–43
- Sun, 1 NovArizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys DAL 67%Green✕ 33–30
- Sun, 1 NovAtlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB 55%Red✓ 0–16
- Sun, 1 NovBaltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills BUF 81%Green✓ 10–36
- Sun, 1 NovCleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers PIT 68%Green✓ 6–27
- Sun, 1 NovIndianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars JAX 82%Green✓ 7–42
- Sun, 1 NovLas Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets NYJ 52%Red✕ 38–33
- Sun, 1 NovMinnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions MIN 53%Red✕ 15–19
- Sun, 1 NovLos Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams LA 73%Green✓ 9–24
- Sun, 1 NovKansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos DEN 65%Green✓ 24–28
- Sun, 1 NovPhiladelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders WAS 69%Green✓ 10–27
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.