// NBA · model record · 139 finished games
NBA prediction record
Every NBA prediction stays on this page once the game finishes, right or wrong. So far this season the model has named the winner in 95 of 139 games (68%). Its own figures said to expect about 91.5 correct, so it is running 3.5 ahead of what it forecast.
Calibration: when we said 70%, did it happen 70% of the time?
Each dot groups games by the chance the model gave its predicted winner. A dot on the dashed diagonal means those chances came true exactly as often as stated; bigger dots hold more games. The accuracy score (average squared error, lower is better) is 0.200, against 0.250 for a coin flip.
| Model chance | Games | Average prediction | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–55% | 22 | 53% | 59% |
| 55–60% | 22 | 57% | 64% |
| 60–65% | 30 | 63% | 53% |
| 65–70% | 21 | 68% | 62% |
| 70–80% | 30 | 75% | 83% |
| 80–100% | 14 | 85% | 100% |
Early-season groups are small, so single results move the dots a lot. The chart fills in as the season goes on.
By confidence level
- Super Very high confidence: 11 of 21 correct (52%)
- Green High confidence: 42 of 51 correct (82%)
- Orange Medium confidence: 29 of 45 correct (64%)
- Red Low confidence: 13 of 22 correct (59%)
Latest finished games
- Sat, 7 NovSan Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers SA 69%Green✓ 125–103
- Sat, 7 NovHouston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns HOU 66%Green✕ 99–102
- Sat, 7 NovOrlando Magic @ Golden State Warriors GS 73%Green✓ 119–126
- Sat, 7 NovWashington Wizards @ Oklahoma City Thunder OKC 87%Green✓ 75–114
- Sat, 7 NovNew York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers NY 62%Orange✓ 109–97
- Sat, 7 NovBrooklyn Nets @ Atlanta Hawks ATL 78%Super✓ 121–124
- Sat, 7 NovDenver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers DEN 72%Green✓ 114–102
- Fri, 6 NovPortland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Lakers LAL 69%Super✓ 118–124
- Fri, 6 NovSan Antonio Spurs @ Sacramento Kings SA 84%Green✓ 124–109
- Fri, 6 NovOklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies OKC 55%Red✓ 128–97
- Fri, 6 NovToronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks TOR 50%Red✓ 121–107
- Fri, 6 NovMinnesota Timberwolves @ New Orleans Pelicans MIN 54%Red✓ 115–109
- Fri, 6 NovUtah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks DAL 68%Green✓ 100–112
- Fri, 6 NovPhiladelphia 76ers @ Cleveland Cavaliers CLE 52%Red✓ 95–119
- Fri, 6 NovWashington Wizards @ Atlanta Hawks ATL 76%Green✓ 132–139
- Fri, 6 NovBoston Celtics @ Charlotte Hornets BOS 69%Green✓ 119–80
- Thu, 5 NovMiami Heat @ Golden State Warriors GS 63%Orange✓ 100–120
- Thu, 5 NovOrlando Magic @ Phoenix Suns PHX 51%Red✓ 104–117
- Wed, 4 NovMiami Heat @ LA Clippers MIA 55%Orange✓ 117–116
- Wed, 4 NovLos Angeles Lakers @ Sacramento Kings LAL 78%Green✓ 116–103
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice.