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// NFL · Week 8 · Sunday 1 November 2026

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars prediction

Kick-off 1:00pm ET ·

Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars
Chance
82%
Light
Green
Confidence
High

Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →

Result

Final: Indianapolis Colts 7 – 42 Jacksonville Jaguars. Our pick, Jacksonville Jaguars, won ✓.

See our full record →

Our pre-game preview

Jacksonville Jaguars are our pick at home against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 8. The model gives them a 82% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ top pick.

Jacksonville Jaguars have the higher team rating (1626 to 1405), built from results and winning margins, and they also have home field.

Schedule: Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a bye.

Quarterbacks: we expect Daniel Jones to start for Indianapolis Colts (91 career starts); we expect Trevor Lawrence to start for Jacksonville Jaguars (86 career starts). We assume each team's most recent starter plays unless the injury report says otherwise.

Season so far: Indianapolis Colts are 2–6 and Jacksonville Jaguars are 6–2.

This preview was written from the data we had before the game.

Game review

What happened

The Jaguars beat the Colts 42–7 at home. Trevor Lawrence completed 10 of 14 passes for 210 yards with 3 touchdowns, and Bhayshul Tuten ran for 104 yards on 16 carries and scored once. For the Colts, Daniel Jones completed 19 of 28 passes for 144 yards with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions.

What the model got right

The model gave the Jaguars an 82% chance at home, mainly because of their higher team rating (1626 to 1405), plus home field, and they won by 35. Both starting quarterbacks were the ones the preview expected: Daniel Jones for the Colts and Trevor Lawrence for the Jaguars.

What didn't work

Not much went against the model in this one. The Colts never got close enough to make it a contest.

Why

The result fits what the model leaned on, the team rating. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 82%, about 2 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.

Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.

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Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.