// NFL · Week 8 · Sunday 1 November 2026
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction
Kick-off 1:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Chance
- 55%
- Light
- Red
- Confidence
- Low
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Atlanta Falcons 0 – 16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Our pick, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, won ✓.
Our pre-game preview
Tampa Bay Buccaneers are our pick at home against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8. The model gives them a 55% chance of winning, which makes this game close to a coin flip (under 55%).
Atlanta Falcons have the higher team rating (1497 to 1472), but home field push the pick to Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Quarterbacks: we expect Michael Penix Jr. to start for Atlanta Falcons (17 career starts); we expect Baker Mayfield to start for Tampa Bay Buccaneers (129 career starts). We assume each team's most recent starter plays unless the injury report says otherwise.
Season so far: Atlanta Falcons are 3–5 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 3–5.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Buccaneers beat the Falcons 16–0 at home. Baker Mayfield completed 0 of 3 passes for 0 yards, and Bucky Irving ran for 170 yards on 27 carries and scored once. For the Falcons, Michael Penix Jr. completed 8 of 24 passes for 125 yards with 4 interceptions.
What the model got right
The model gave the Buccaneers a 55% chance at home, mainly because of home field, even though the Falcons had the higher team rating (1497 to 1472), and they won by 16. Both starting quarterbacks were the ones the preview expected: Michael Penix Jr. for the Falcons and Baker Mayfield for the Buccaneers.
What didn't work
Our rating had the Falcons as the stronger team, and on the day that didn't decide it. The Falcons never got close enough to make it a contest.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, home field. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 55% this was close to a coin flip and could easily have gone the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NFL predictions that day
- Sun, 1 NovTennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals CIN 83%Green✓ 36–43
- Sun, 1 NovArizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys DAL 67%Green✕ 33–30
- Sun, 1 NovBaltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills BUF 81%Green✓ 10–36
- Sun, 1 NovCleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers PIT 68%Green✓ 6–27
- Sun, 1 NovIndianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars JAX 82%Green✓ 7–42
- Sun, 1 NovLas Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets NYJ 52%Red✕ 38–33
- Sun, 1 NovMinnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions MIN 53%Red✕ 15–19
- Sun, 1 NovLos Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams LA 73%Green✓ 9–24
- Sun, 1 NovKansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos DEN 65%Green✓ 24–28
- Sun, 1 NovNew England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins NE 71%Green✓ 24–19
- Sun, 1 NovPhiladelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders WAS 69%Green✓ 10–27
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.