// NFL · Week 8 · Sunday 1 November 2026
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos prediction
Kick-off 4:25pm ET ·
- Pick
- Denver Broncos
- Chance
- 65%
- Light
- Green
- Confidence
- High
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 24 – 28 Denver Broncos. Our pick, Denver Broncos, won ✓.
Our pre-game preview
Denver Broncos are our pick at home against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 8. The model gives them a 65% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ top pick.
Denver Broncos have the higher team rating (1639 to 1567), built from results and winning margins, and they also have home field.
Quarterbacks: we expect Patrick Mahomes to start for Kansas City Chiefs (153 career starts); we expect Bo Nix to start for Denver Broncos (43 career starts). We assume each team's most recent starter plays unless the injury report says otherwise.
Season so far: Kansas City Chiefs are 5–2 and Denver Broncos are 6–2.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Broncos beat the Chiefs 28–24 at home. Bo Nix completed 20 of 32 passes for 222 yards with 2 touchdowns. For the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes completed 30 of 41 passes for 321 yards with 3 touchdowns.
What the model got right
The model gave the Broncos a 65% chance at home, mainly because of their higher team rating (1639 to 1567), plus home field, and they won by 4. Both starting quarterbacks were the ones the preview expected: Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs and Bo Nix for the Broncos.
What didn't work
The Chiefs out-gained the Broncos 399 yards to 294 and still lost. The Chiefs kept it to a one-score game, so it was never comfortable.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, the team rating. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 65%, about 3 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NFL predictions that day
- Sun, 1 NovTennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals CIN 83%Green✓ 36–43
- Sun, 1 NovArizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys DAL 67%Green✕ 33–30
- Sun, 1 NovAtlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB 55%Red✓ 0–16
- Sun, 1 NovBaltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills BUF 81%Green✓ 10–36
- Sun, 1 NovCleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers PIT 68%Green✓ 6–27
- Sun, 1 NovIndianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars JAX 82%Green✓ 7–42
- Sun, 1 NovLas Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets NYJ 52%Red✕ 38–33
- Sun, 1 NovMinnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions MIN 53%Red✕ 15–19
- Sun, 1 NovLos Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams LA 73%Green✓ 9–24
- Sun, 1 NovNew England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins NE 71%Green✓ 24–19
- Sun, 1 NovPhiladelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders WAS 69%Green✓ 10–27
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.