New York Jets vs New England Patriots prediction

Preview

New England Patriots are our pick at home against the New York Jets in Week 6. The model gives them a 81% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ tip.

New England Patriots have the higher team rating (1628 to 1382), built from results and winning margins, and they also have home field.

Quarterbacks: we expect Geno Smith to start for New York Jets (104 career starts); we expect Drake Maye to start for New England Patriots (37 career starts). We assume each team's most recent starter plays unless the injury report says otherwise.

Season so far: New York Jets are 2–3 and New England Patriots are 3–2.

What could change the pick: late quarterback news. We re-check every 30 minutes until kick-off, then the pick is locked and stays on our public record, win or lose.

This is one of our tips. Our fair price for New England Patriots is $1.23; we'd only call it value at $1.27 or better.