Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs prediction

Preview

Kansas City Chiefs are our pick at home against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6. The model gives them a 78% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ tip.

Kansas City Chiefs have the higher team rating (1575 to 1407), built from results and winning margins, and they also have home field.

Schedule: Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a bye.

Quarterbacks: we expect Justin Herbert to start for Los Angeles Chargers (103 career starts); we expect Patrick Mahomes to start for Kansas City Chiefs (151 career starts). We assume each team's most recent starter plays unless the injury report says otherwise.

Season so far: Los Angeles Chargers are 0–5 and Kansas City Chiefs are 4–0.

What could change the pick: late quarterback news. We re-check every 30 minutes until kick-off, then the pick is locked and stays on our public record, win or lose.

This is one of our tips. Our fair price for Kansas City Chiefs is $1.28; we'd only call it value at $1.32 or better.