// NBA · Wednesday 28 October 2026
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks prediction
Start 9:30pm ET ·
- Pick
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Chance
- 67%
- Light
- Super
- Confidence
- Very high
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Oklahoma City Thunder 96 – 120 Dallas Mavericks. Our pick, Oklahoma City Thunder, lost ✕.
Recent results
- Oklahoma City Thunder: 4 wins from the last 4, average margin +10.5 points (W 125–114 v PHX, W 108–101 v LAC, W 96–84 v DEN, W 116–104 @ SA).
- Dallas Mavericks: 2 wins from the last 4, average margin −3.5 points (W 113–109 @ MIA, L 106–122 v SA, W 121–105 @ IND, L 110–128 @ HOU).
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Oklahoma City Thunder are our pick on the road against the Dallas Mavericks. The model gives them a 67% chance of winning, which makes this game our strongest pick.
Dallas Mavericks rate slightly stronger on the rosters we expect (88.3 to 83.5 on our team-strength rating), but rest and form push the pick to Oklahoma City Thunder.
Recent form: Oklahoma City Thunder have been winning by 6.9 points a game, while Dallas Mavericks have been losing by 5.2 points a game.
Injuries: Oklahoma City Thunder will be without Jalen Williams (32 min a game), Chet Holmgren (30 min a game), Alex Caruso (19 min a game) and Cason Wallace (16 min a game) and Dallas Mavericks will be without Naji Marshall (28 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Oklahoma City Thunder are 8–2 and Dallas Mavericks are 5–4.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Mavericks beat the Thunder 120–96 at home. Cooper Flagg led them with 26 points, 5 rebounds and 8 assists, and P.J. Washington added 18. For the Thunder, Ajay Mitchell had 29 points.
What the model got right
Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace for the Thunder, and Naji Marshall for the Mavericks, all missed the game, as the preview expected. Our team-strength rating also had the Mavericks as the stronger side (88.3 to 83.5).
What didn't work
The model made the Thunder the favourite at 67%, and that was wrong: the Mavericks won by 24. The Mavericks made 16 of 45 from three; the Thunder made 5 of 32.
Why
The Mavericks already rated stronger on paper, so the pick leaned on rest and form, which is a thin margin. Even at 67%, about 3 in 10 games like this go the other way, and this was one of them. It stays on our record like every other result.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Wed, 28 OctWashington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers CLE 82%Super✓ 111–121
- Wed, 28 OctPhiladelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers PHI 68%Green✓ 114–109
- Wed, 28 OctMiami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks ATL 64%Super✕ 129–117
- Wed, 28 OctCharlotte Hornets @ Detroit Pistons DET 65%Orange✓ 89–97
- Wed, 28 OctOrlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors TOR 64%Orange✓ 99–129
- Wed, 28 OctGolden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves MIN 63%Orange✕ 119–114
- Wed, 28 OctHouston Rockets @ Milwaukee Bucks HOU 60%Orange✓ 132–100
- Wed, 28 OctDenver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans DEN 56%Orange✓ 104–91
- Wed, 28 OctNew York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls NY 71%Green✓ 133–127
- Wed, 28 OctSan Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz SA 76%Green✓ 117–111
- Wed, 28 OctLos Angeles Lakers @ LA Clippers LAC 63%Super✕ 103–87
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.