// NBA · Wednesday 28 October 2026
Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks prediction
Start 7:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- Atlanta Hawks
- Chance
- 64%
- Light
- Super
- Confidence
- Very high
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Miami Heat 129 – 117 Atlanta Hawks. Our pick, Atlanta Hawks, lost ✕.
Recent results
- Miami Heat: 0 wins from the last 4, average margin −12.8 points (L 109–113 v DAL, L 110–115 @ CHA, L 111–128 v DET, L 106–131 v MIN).
- Atlanta Hawks: 2 wins from the last 4, average margin +9.3 points (L 110–120 @ HOU, L 114–121 v HOU, W 128–81 @ CHA, W 132–125 @ ORL).
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Atlanta Hawks are our pick at home against the Miami Heat. The model gives them a 64% chance of winning, which makes this game our strongest pick.
Miami Heat rate slightly stronger on the rosters we expect (96.6 to 89.8 on our team-strength rating), but home court push the pick to Atlanta Hawks.
Recent form: Miami Heat have been losing by 4.7 points a game, while Atlanta Hawks have been winning by 2.4 points a game.
Injuries: neither team has a regular player on the injury report at the time of writing.
Season so far: Miami Heat are 3–6 and Atlanta Hawks are 7–4.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Heat beat the Hawks 129–117 on the road. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo led them with 24 points each. For the Hawks, Nickeil Alexander-Walker had 23 points, making 5 of 9 threes.
What the model got right
Our team-strength rating also had the Heat as the stronger side (96.6 to 89.8). Beyond that, not much went the model's way on the night.
What didn't work
The model made the Hawks a slight favourite at 64%, and that was wrong: the Heat won by 12. The Heat out-rebounded the Hawks 52–40.
Why
The Heat already rated stronger on paper, so the pick leaned on home court, which is a thin margin. Even at 64%, about 4 in 10 games like this go the other way, and this was one of them. It stays on our record like every other result.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Wed, 28 OctWashington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers CLE 82%Super✓ 111–121
- Wed, 28 OctPhiladelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers PHI 68%Green✓ 114–109
- Wed, 28 OctCharlotte Hornets @ Detroit Pistons DET 65%Orange✓ 89–97
- Wed, 28 OctOrlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors TOR 64%Orange✓ 99–129
- Wed, 28 OctGolden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves MIN 63%Orange✕ 119–114
- Wed, 28 OctHouston Rockets @ Milwaukee Bucks HOU 60%Orange✓ 132–100
- Wed, 28 OctDenver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans DEN 56%Orange✓ 104–91
- Wed, 28 OctNew York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls NY 71%Green✓ 133–127
- Wed, 28 OctSan Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz SA 76%Green✓ 117–111
- Wed, 28 OctOklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks OKC 67%Super✕ 96–120
- Wed, 28 OctLos Angeles Lakers @ LA Clippers LAC 63%Super✕ 103–87
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.