Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets prediction

Recent results

• Phoenix Suns: 4 wins from the last 5, average margin +3.6 points (W 101–96 v CHA, W 133–110 v LAC, L 96–122 v SA, W 102–99 v HOU, W 117–104 v ORL).
• Denver Nuggets: 4 wins from the last 5, average margin +6.8 points (W 116–108 @ NO, W 123–118 @ MEM, L 100–110 @ HOU, W 114–102 @ IND, W 128–109 v TOR).

These teams have already met 1 time this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.

Preview

Denver Nuggets are our pick at home against the Phoenix Suns. The model gives them a 77% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ top pick.

On the rosters we expect, Denver Nuggets rate as the stronger team (97.2 to 88.6 on our team-strength rating), and that is the main reason for the pick.

Recent form: Phoenix Suns have been losing by 3.7 points a game, while Denver Nuggets have been winning by 3.4 points a game.

Schedule: Phoenix Suns are on the second night of a back-to-back, which the model takes into account.

Injuries: Phoenix Suns will be without Mark Williams (23 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.

Season so far: Phoenix Suns are 5–6 and Denver Nuggets are 7–4.

What could change the pick: late injury news. We re-check every 15 minutes until game time, then the pick is frozen and stays on our public record, win or lose.

This is one of our top picks: Denver Nuggets at 77% to win.