Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat prediction

Recent results

• Houston Rockets: 3 wins from the last 5, average margin +2.2 points (W 125–118 v UTAH, W 115–108 v GS, W 110–100 v DEN, L 99–102 @ PHX, L 107–117 v MIN).
• Miami Heat: 4 wins from the last 5, average margin +4.8 points (W 137–117 v DET, W 133–121 v CLE, W 115–109 @ UTAH, W 114–108 @ SAC, L 100–120 @ GS).

This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.

Preview

Miami Heat are our pick at home against the Houston Rockets. The model gives them a 52% chance of winning, which makes this game close to a coin flip (under 55%).

On the rosters we expect, Miami Heat rate as the stronger team (99.5 to 94.7 on our team-strength rating), and that is the main reason for the pick.

Recent form: Houston Rockets have been winning by 6.3 points a game, while Miami Heat have been winning by 1.3 points a game.

Schedule: Houston Rockets are on the second night of a back-to-back, which the model takes into account.

Injuries: Houston Rockets will be without Fred VanVleet (30 min a game), Steven Adams (23 min a game) and Clint Capela (17 min a game) and Miami Heat will be without Pelle Larsson (30 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.

Season so far: Houston Rockets are 10–3 and Miami Heat are 7–6.

What could change the pick: late injury news. We re-check every 15 minutes until game time, then the pick is frozen and stays on our public record, win or lose.