// NBA · Thursday 12 November 2026
Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves prediction
Start 8:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- Chance
- 73%
- Light
- Super — best value
- Confidence
- Very high
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Dallas Mavericks 94 – 133 Minnesota Timberwolves. Our pick, Minnesota Timberwolves, won ✓.
Recent results
- Dallas Mavericks: 3 wins from the last 5, average margin +7.2 points (W 125–122 v IND, W 130–93 v BKN, W 112–100 v UTAH, L 111–112 @ SA, L 100–115 v SAC).
- Minnesota Timberwolves: 4 wins from the last 5, average margin +6.6 points (W 115–100 v UTAH, W 115–109 @ NO, W 117–107 @ HOU, W 112–100 v MIL, L 111–121 @ SA).
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Minnesota Timberwolves are our pick at home against the Dallas Mavericks. The model gives them a 73% chance of winning, which makes this game a value pick (NBA; bookie price beats our fair price).
Dallas Mavericks rate slightly stronger on the rosters we expect (93.0 to 90.5 on our team-strength rating), but home court push the pick to Minnesota Timberwolves.
Recent form: Dallas Mavericks have been winning by 1.5 points a game, while Minnesota Timberwolves have been winning by 6.2 points a game.
Injuries: Dallas Mavericks will be without Dereck Lively II (16 min a game) and Minnesota Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards (34 min a game) and Donte DiVincenzo (27 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Dallas Mavericks are 7–6 and Minnesota Timberwolves are 9–4.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Timberwolves beat the Mavericks 133–94 at home. Minnesota made 52 of 90 shots, and Dallas made 35 of 94, including 13 of 48 from three. Minnesota won the rebounds 50 to 38. Bones Hyland scored 24 with 8 assists, LaMelo Ball had 22 and 9 assists, and Zaccharie Risacher led Dallas with 22.
What the model got right
We picked Minnesota at 73%, and they won by 39. The model had Minnesota in better recent form (about 6 a game against about 1.5) and with more rest (four days against three). Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo were out for Minnesota, but the group still shot well.
What didn't work
The model's team-strength rating actually had Dallas slightly ahead (93 to 90.5), so that part of the picture pointed the other way. It also gave no sign of a margin this big.
Why
The pick was right, but the model didn't see this coming. Dallas was without Dereck Lively and Sergio de Larrea, and a cold shooting night plus a large rebounding gap turned a moderate lean into a blowout.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
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Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.