// NBA · Wednesday 4 November 2026
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction
Start 8:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Chance
- 59%
- Light
- Orange
- Confidence
- Medium
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Cleveland Cavaliers 116 – 124 Oklahoma City Thunder. Our pick, Oklahoma City Thunder, won ✓.
Recent results
- Cleveland Cavaliers: 3 wins from the last 5, average margin +5.8 points (L 112–117 v OKC, W 136–111 @ MIL, L 111–114 @ ATL, W 121–111 v WSH, W 127–125 v MIN).
- Oklahoma City Thunder: 3 wins from the last 5, average margin −4.4 points (W 117–112 @ CLE, L 98–119 @ HOU, L 96–120 @ DAL, W 125–114 v PHX, W 108–101 v LAC).
These teams have already met 1 time this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Oklahoma City Thunder are our pick at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The model gives them a 59% chance of winning, which makes this game a lean (55 to 65%).
Cleveland Cavaliers rate slightly stronger on the rosters we expect (94.9 to 86.6 on our team-strength rating), but home court push the pick to Oklahoma City Thunder.
Recent form: Cleveland Cavaliers have been winning by 0.9 points a game, while Oklahoma City Thunder have been winning by 2.2 points a game.
Injuries: Cleveland Cavaliers will be without Peyton Watson (28 min a game) and Jaylon Tyson (21 min a game) and Oklahoma City Thunder will be without Jalen Williams (32 min a game), Chet Holmgren (30 min a game), Jaylin Williams (18 min a game) and Cason Wallace (16 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Cleveland Cavaliers are 5–5 and Oklahoma City Thunder are 8–2.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Thunder beat the Cavaliers 124–116 at home. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led them with 42 points and 8 assists, making 5 of 11 threes, and Ajay Mitchell added 23. For the Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell had 27 points and 6 assists, making 5 of 10 threes.
What the model got right
The model gave the Thunder a 59% chance at home, mainly because of home court, even though the Cavaliers rated clearly stronger (94.9 to 86.6), and they won by 8. Recent form pointed the same way: the Thunder had been winning by 2.2 points a game, the Cavaliers winning by 0.9. Peyton Watson and Jaylon Tyson for the Cavaliers, and Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace and Jaylin Williams for the Thunder, all missed the game, as the preview expected.
What didn't work
Our rating had the Cavaliers clearly stronger on paper, and on the night that didn't decide it. The Cavaliers made more threes (19 to 15) and still lost.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, home court. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 59%, about 4 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Wed, 4 NovAtlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards ATL 55%Orange✓ 120–105
- Wed, 4 NovPhiladelphia 76ers @ Detroit Pistons DET 62%Super✕ 112–106
- Wed, 4 NovMilwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics BOS 77%Green✓ 102–109
- Wed, 4 NovCharlotte Hornets @ Brooklyn Nets CHA 61%Orange✕ 104–114
- Wed, 4 NovChicago Bulls @ New York Knicks NY 83%Green✓ 105–135
- Wed, 4 NovUtah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans NO 73%Green✓ 113–120
- Wed, 4 NovIndiana Pacers @ Memphis Grizzlies MEM 74%Super✕ 107–103
- Wed, 4 NovMinnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets HOU 70%Green✕ 117–107
- Wed, 4 NovPortland Trail Blazers @ Phoenix Suns POR 55%Orange✓ 132–119
- Wed, 4 NovToronto Raptors @ Denver Nuggets DEN 64%Orange✓ 109–128
- Wed, 4 NovDallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs SA 84%Green✓ 111–112
- Wed, 4 NovLos Angeles Lakers @ Sacramento Kings LAL 78%Green✓ 116–103
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.