Who wins.
How likely.
Every game gets a win probability from our proprietary data model. Every pick is posted before game time, frozen when the game starts and kept on the record, win or lose.
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More sports are in the lab.Who wins. How likely.
Every game gets a win probability from our proprietary data model. It rates every player from recent box scores, reads the live injury report, and blends team strength, form and schedule into one number. Picks are timestamped before game time, then frozen. Every result stays on the record.
How it works
ProbaLab runs a proprietary data model for each sport. For the NBA it rates every player from recent box scores, weighted toward recent games. Before each game it reads the official injury report, works out the minutes each team is likely to play, and turns that into a team strength for tonight. That is blended with a long-run team rating, recent form, rest and back-to-backs to give each side a win probability.
The model was tested on the 2025–26 season game by game, using only information available before each game time. Its percentages lined up with real results: picks given 70–75% won 74% of the time.
NFL: the model rates every team from results and winning margins, adds home field and rest, and checks who is expected to start at quarterback (a backup or inexperienced starter counts against a team). Tested on the 2021–2025 seasons, it picked 65% of winners, and its percentages matched results: games rated 70–75% were won 73% of the time.
The lights
The cut-offs depend on the sport. NBA, NFL and NHL use the two-way scale below. Football (where a draw is possible) and tennis use different cut-offs — how the lights work.
Super — best value. NBA only. The bookmaker price beats our fair price. This is a value flag, not a higher-confidence green. How the lights work.
On NBA, NFL and NHL: 65% or more. One of our top picks.
On NBA, NFL and NHL: a lean, 55 to 65%.
On NBA, NFL and NHL: under 55%. Close to a coin flip.
Frozen before the start
Every pick is timestamped before the game starts and frozen when it begins. It stays on the record, right or wrong.
Our rules
- Every pick is timestamped before game time and frozen at game time.
- Losses stay on the record. Nothing is removed.
- We publish probabilities, not guarantees. A 70% pick loses three times in ten.
- All times are shown in your own time zone.
Full method → · Backtest — not live results → · How the lights work →