// NBA · Wednesday 21 October 2026
Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers prediction
Start 10:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Chance
- 73%
- Light
- Super
- Confidence
- Very high
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Golden State Warriors 105 – 127 Los Angeles Lakers. Our pick, Los Angeles Lakers, won ✓.
Recent results
- Golden State Warriors: no finished games yet this season.
- Los Angeles Lakers: no finished games yet this season.
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Los Angeles Lakers are our pick at home against the Golden State Warriors. The model gives them a 73% chance of winning, which makes this game our strongest pick.
On the rosters we expect, Los Angeles Lakers rate as the stronger team (97.1 to 81.7 on our team-strength rating), and that is the main reason for the pick.
Recent form: Golden State Warriors have been losing by 5.1 points a game, while Los Angeles Lakers have been losing by 1.2 points a game.
Injuries: Golden State Warriors will be without Jimmy Butler III (31 min a game), Brandin Podziemski (31 min a game), Moses Moody (28 min a game) and Kristaps Porzingis (23 min a game) and Los Angeles Lakers will be without Collin Sexton (27 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Golden State Warriors are 7–3 and Los Angeles Lakers are 8–2.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Lakers beat the Warriors 127–105 at home. Luka Doncic led them with 28 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists, making 5 of 12 threes, and Walker Kessler added 26. For the Warriors, Stephen Curry had 23 points.
What the model got right
The model gave the Lakers a 73% chance at home, mainly because of their higher team-strength rating (97.1 to 81.7), and they won by 22. Recent form pointed the same way: the Lakers had been losing by 1.2 points a game, the Warriors losing by 5.1. Jimmy Butler III, Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis for the Warriors, and Collin Sexton for the Lakers, all missed the game, as the preview expected.
What didn't work
Not much went against the model in this one. Stephen Curry's 23 points for the Warriors weren't enough to change the result.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, the team-strength rating. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 73%, about 3 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Wed, 21 OctAtlanta Hawks @ Orlando Magic ORL 55%Orange✕ 132–125
- Wed, 21 OctMilwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards MIL 54%Red✕ 116–128
- Wed, 21 OctCharlotte Hornets @ Brooklyn Nets CHA 68%Super✓ 110–103
- Wed, 21 OctMinnesota Timberwolves @ Miami Heat MIA 60%Orange✕ 131–106
- Wed, 21 OctChicago Bulls @ Toronto Raptors TOR 75%Green✓ 92–135
- Wed, 21 OctUtah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies MEM 53%Red✓ 103–123
- Wed, 21 OctIndiana Pacers @ New Orleans Pelicans NO 65%Orange✕ 123–120
- Wed, 21 OctDallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets HOU 79%Green✓ 110–128
- Wed, 21 OctPhoenix Suns @ Portland Trail Blazers POR 59%Orange✓ 83–124
- Wed, 21 OctSacramento Kings @ LA Clippers LAC 70%Super✓ 96–121
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.