// NBA · Wednesday 21 October 2026
Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets prediction
Start 8:30pm ET ·
- Pick
- Houston Rockets
- Chance
- 79%
- Light
- Green
- Confidence
- High
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Dallas Mavericks 110 – 128 Houston Rockets. Our pick, Houston Rockets, won ✓.
Recent results
- Dallas Mavericks: no finished games yet this season.
- Houston Rockets: no finished games yet this season.
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Houston Rockets are our pick at home against the Dallas Mavericks. The model gives them a 79% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ top pick.
On the rosters we expect, Houston Rockets rate as the stronger team (94.6 to 82.8 on our team-strength rating), and that is the main reason for the pick.
Recent form: Dallas Mavericks have been losing by 7.4 points a game, while Houston Rockets have been winning by 3.6 points a game.
Injuries: Dallas Mavericks will be without Santi Aldama (30 min a game), Caleb Martin (21 min a game) and Dereck Lively II (16 min a game) and Houston Rockets will be without Steven Adams (23 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Dallas Mavericks are 5–4 and Houston Rockets are 7–3.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Rockets beat the Mavericks 128–110 at home. Kevin Durant and Jabari Smith Jr. led them with 30 points each. For the Mavericks, Cooper Flagg had 32 points and 5 rebounds.
What the model got right
The model gave the Rockets a 79% chance at home, mainly because of their higher team-strength rating (94.6 to 82.8), and they won by 18. Recent form pointed the same way: the Rockets had been winning by 3.6 points a game, the Mavericks losing by 7.4. Santi Aldama, Dereck Lively II and Caleb Martin for the Mavericks, and Steven Adams for the Rockets, all missed the game, as the preview expected.
What didn't work
Not much went against the model in this one. Cooper Flagg's 32 points for the Mavericks weren't enough to change the result.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, the team-strength rating. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 79%, about 2 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Wed, 21 OctAtlanta Hawks @ Orlando Magic ORL 55%Orange✕ 132–125
- Wed, 21 OctMilwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards MIL 54%Red✕ 116–128
- Wed, 21 OctCharlotte Hornets @ Brooklyn Nets CHA 68%Super✓ 110–103
- Wed, 21 OctMinnesota Timberwolves @ Miami Heat MIA 60%Orange✕ 131–106
- Wed, 21 OctChicago Bulls @ Toronto Raptors TOR 75%Green✓ 92–135
- Wed, 21 OctUtah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies MEM 53%Red✓ 103–123
- Wed, 21 OctIndiana Pacers @ New Orleans Pelicans NO 65%Orange✕ 123–120
- Wed, 21 OctGolden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers LAL 73%Super✓ 105–127
- Wed, 21 OctPhoenix Suns @ Portland Trail Blazers POR 59%Orange✓ 83–124
- Wed, 21 OctSacramento Kings @ LA Clippers LAC 70%Super✓ 96–121
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.