// NBA · Monday 26 October 2026
Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction
Start 8:00pm ET ·
- Pick
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Chance
- 66%
- Light
- Green
- Confidence
- High
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Phoenix Suns 114 – 125 Oklahoma City Thunder. Our pick, Oklahoma City Thunder, won ✓.
Recent results
- Phoenix Suns: 1 win from the last 2, average margin −16.0 points (W 131–122 v GS, L 83–124 @ POR).
- Oklahoma City Thunder: 3 wins from the last 3, average margin +10.3 points (W 108–101 v LAC, W 96–84 v DEN, W 116–104 @ SA).
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Oklahoma City Thunder are our pick at home against the Phoenix Suns. The model gives them a 66% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ top pick.
Phoenix Suns rate slightly stronger on the rosters we expect (88.7 to 81.5 on our team-strength rating), but home court push the pick to Oklahoma City Thunder.
Recent form: Phoenix Suns have been losing by 5.7 points a game, while Oklahoma City Thunder have been winning by 6.8 points a game.
Schedule: Oklahoma City Thunder are on the second night of a back-to-back, which the model takes into account.
Injuries: Phoenix Suns will be without Oso Ighodaro (28 min a game) and Mark Williams (23 min a game) and Oklahoma City Thunder will be without Jalen Williams (32 min a game), Chet Holmgren (30 min a game) and Cason Wallace (16 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Phoenix Suns are 3–5 and Oklahoma City Thunder are 8–2.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Thunder beat the Suns 125–114 at home. Ajay Mitchell led them with 30 points and 5 assists, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 26. For the Suns, Jalen Green had 20 points.
What the model got right
The model gave the Thunder a 66% chance at home, mainly because of home court, even though the Suns rated slightly stronger (88.7 to 81.5), and they won by 11. Recent form pointed the same way: the Thunder had been winning by 6.8 points a game, the Suns losing by 5.7. Mark Williams and Oso Ighodaro for the Suns, and Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Cason Wallace for the Thunder, all missed the game, as the preview expected.
What didn't work
Our rating had the Suns slightly stronger on paper, and on the night that didn't decide it. The Suns made more threes (18 to 12) and still lost.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, home court. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 66%, about 3 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Mon, 26 OctWashington Wizards @ Charlotte Hornets CHA 70%Super✓ 103–110
- Mon, 26 OctMinnesota Timberwolves @ Cleveland Cavaliers CLE 58%Orange✓ 125–127
- Mon, 26 OctChicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics BOS 77%Green✓ 99–134
- Mon, 26 OctDallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat MIA 68%Green✕ 113–109
- Mon, 26 OctIndiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks MIL 61%Orange✓ 102–110
- Mon, 26 OctAtlanta Hawks @ Houston Rockets HOU 65%Orange✓ 110–120
- Mon, 26 OctMemphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz MEM 59%Orange✓ 110–105
- Mon, 26 OctGolden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets DEN 72%Green✕ 134–114
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.