// NBA · Monday 26 October 2026
Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat prediction
Start 7:30pm ET ·
- Pick
- Miami Heat
- Chance
- 68%
- Light
- Green
- Confidence
- High
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Dallas Mavericks 113 – 109 Miami Heat. Our pick, Miami Heat, lost ✕.
Recent results
- Dallas Mavericks: 1 win from the last 3, average margin −6.0 points (L 106–122 v SA, W 121–105 @ IND, L 110–128 @ HOU).
- Miami Heat: 0 wins from the last 3, average margin −15.7 points (L 110–115 @ CHA, L 111–128 v DET, L 106–131 v MIN).
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
Miami Heat are our pick at home against the Dallas Mavericks. The model gives them a 68% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ top pick.
On the rosters we expect, Miami Heat rate as the stronger team (95.2 to 87.6 on our team-strength rating), and that is the main reason for the pick.
Recent form: Dallas Mavericks have been losing by 6.7 points a game, while Miami Heat have been losing by 4.4 points a game.
Injuries: Dallas Mavericks will be without Naji Marshall (28 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Dallas Mavericks are 5–4 and Miami Heat are 3–6.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
Dallas won 113–109 in Miami. Cooper Flagg led them with 29 points, 11 assists and 6 rebounds, and P.J. Washington added 20 points and 9 rebounds. Giannis Antetokounmpo did everything he could for Miami with 29 points, 14 rebounds and 11 assists.
What the model got right
The model expected a close, low-margin game between two teams who had been losing by four to seven points a game, and it was: four points in it at the end. Naji Marshall did miss the game for Dallas, as the preview assumed.
What didn't work
The model rated Miami clearly stronger on paper and made them a 68% favourite, and that was wrong on the night. Dallas won the rebounding battle 51–42, and Miami made only 14 of 25 free throws while Dallas made 13 of 14. That free-throw gap alone was worth more than the final margin.
Why
Our team-strength rating doesn't account for a night where one side controls the boards and the other leaves points at the line. A 68% chance still means Miami lose about one game in three like this one, and this was one of them.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Mon, 26 OctWashington Wizards @ Charlotte Hornets CHA 70%Super✓ 103–110
- Mon, 26 OctMinnesota Timberwolves @ Cleveland Cavaliers CLE 58%Orange✓ 125–127
- Mon, 26 OctChicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics BOS 77%Green✓ 99–134
- Mon, 26 OctPhoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder OKC 66%Green✓ 114–125
- Mon, 26 OctIndiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks MIL 61%Orange✓ 102–110
- Mon, 26 OctAtlanta Hawks @ Houston Rockets HOU 65%Orange✓ 110–120
- Mon, 26 OctMemphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz MEM 59%Orange✓ 110–105
- Mon, 26 OctGolden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets DEN 72%Green✕ 134–114
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.