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// NBA · Saturday 24 October 2026

New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets prediction

Start 9:00pm ET ·

Pick
Denver Nuggets
Chance
77%
Light
Green
Confidence
High

Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →

Result

Final: New Orleans Pelicans 135 – 141 Denver Nuggets. Our pick, Denver Nuggets, won ✓.

See our full record →

Recent results

This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.

Our pre-game preview

Denver Nuggets are our pick at home against the New Orleans Pelicans. The model gives them a 77% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ top pick.

On the rosters we expect, Denver Nuggets rate as the stronger team (99.3 to 94.5 on our team-strength rating), and that is the main reason for the pick.

Recent form: New Orleans Pelicans have been losing by 3.1 points a game, while Denver Nuggets have been winning by 1.4 points a game.

Schedule: New Orleans Pelicans are on the second night of a back-to-back, which the model takes into account.

Injuries: Denver Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson (31 min a game) and Spencer Jones (20 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.

Season so far: New Orleans Pelicans are 4–5 and Denver Nuggets are 5–3.

This preview was written from the data we had before the game.

Game review

What happened

The Nuggets beat the Pelicans 141–135 at home. Jamal Murray led them with 42 points and 6 assists, making 8 of 16 threes, and Nikola Jokic added 35. For the Pelicans, Trey Murphy III had 26 points and 6 rebounds.

What the model got right

The model gave the Nuggets a 76% chance at home, mainly because of their higher team-strength rating (99.3 to 94.5), and they won by 6. Recent form pointed the same way: the Nuggets had been winning by 1.4 points a game, the Pelicans losing by 3.1. Cameron Johnson and Spencer Jones for the Nuggets both missed the game, as the preview expected.

What didn't work

Not much went against the model in this one. Trey Murphy III's 26 points for the Pelicans weren't enough to change the result.

Why

The result fits what the model leaned on, the team-strength rating. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 76%, about 2 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.

Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.

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