// NFL · Week 9 · Thursday 5 November 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens prediction
Kick-off 8:15pm ET ·
- Pick
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Chance
- 70%
- Light
- Green
- Confidence
- High
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 33 – 10 Baltimore Ravens. Our pick, Jacksonville Jaguars, won ✓.
Our pre-game preview
Jacksonville Jaguars are our pick on the road against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 9. The model gives them a 70% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ top pick.
Jacksonville Jaguars have the higher team rating (1641 to 1491), built from results and winning margins.
Quarterbacks: we expect Trevor Lawrence to start for Jacksonville Jaguars (87 career starts); we expect Joe Fagnano to start for Baltimore Ravens, with only 1 career start. We assume each team's most recent starter plays unless the injury report says otherwise.
Season so far: Jacksonville Jaguars are 6–2 and Baltimore Ravens are 4–5.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Jaguars beat the Ravens 33–10 on the road. Trevor Lawrence completed 16 of 26 passes for 242 yards with 1 touchdown. For the Ravens, Joe Fagnano completed 10 of 18 passes for 60 yards with 2 interceptions.
What the model got right
The model gave the Jaguars a 70% chance on the road, mainly because of their higher team rating (1641 to 1491), and they won by 23. Both starting quarterbacks were the ones the preview expected: Trevor Lawrence for the Jaguars and Joe Fagnano for the Ravens.
What didn't work
Not much went against the model in this one. The Ravens never got close enough to make it a contest.
Why
The result fits what the model leaned on, the team rating. One win doesn't prove the model right: at 70%, about 3 in 10 games like this go the other way, and every result stays on our record.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.