// NBA · Friday 23 October 2026
Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs prediction
Start 9:30pm ET ·
- Pick
- San Antonio Spurs
- Chance
- 66%
- Light
- Green
- Confidence
- High
Full breakdown: team stats, players & form →
Result
Final: Houston Rockets 114 – 110 San Antonio Spurs. Our pick, San Antonio Spurs, lost ✕.
Recent results
- Houston Rockets: 1 win from the last 1, average margin +18.0 points (W 128–110 v DAL).
- San Antonio Spurs: 0 wins from the last 1, average margin −12.0 points (L 104–116 v OKC).
This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Results are taken from final scores, most recent first.
Our pre-game preview
San Antonio Spurs are our pick at home against the Houston Rockets. The model gives them a 66% chance of winning, which makes this game a 65%+ top pick.
Houston Rockets rate slightly stronger on the rosters we expect (96.0 to 92.7 on our team-strength rating), but home court push the pick to San Antonio Spurs.
Recent form: Houston Rockets have been winning by 5.2 points a game, while San Antonio Spurs have been winning by 3.5 points a game.
Injuries: Houston Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard (29 min a game) and San Antonio Spurs will be without Tobias Harris (31 min a game). Players listed as unsure are counted by how likely they are to play.
Season so far: Houston Rockets are 7–3 and San Antonio Spurs are 8–2.
This preview was written from the data we had before the game.
Game review
What happened
The Rockets beat the Spurs 114–110 on the road. Alperen Sengun led them with 29 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists, and Kevin Durant added 20. For the Spurs, Victor Wembanyama had 25 points and 13 rebounds.
What the model got right
Reed Sheppard for the Rockets, and Tobias Harris for the Spurs, both missed the game, as the preview expected. The preview did show the Rockets as the team in better recent form (the Spurs had been winning by 3.5 points a game, the Rockets winning by 5.2), and they won. Our team-strength rating also had the Rockets as the stronger side (96.0 to 92.7).
What didn't work
The model made the Spurs the favourite at 66%, and that was wrong: the Rockets won by 4. The Rockets made 28 of 31 free throws to 18 of 25 for the Spurs.
Why
The Rockets already rated slightly stronger on paper, so the pick leaned on home court, which is a thin margin. Even at 66%, about 3 in 10 games like this go the other way, and this was one of them. It stays on our record like every other result.
Written after the game. Scores and stats are checked against two independent sources.
More NBA predictions that day
- Fri, 23 OctChicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks MIL 53%Red✕ 132–125
- Fri, 23 OctMinnesota Timberwolves @ Orlando Magic ORL 51%Red✕ 115–93
- Fri, 23 OctToronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards TOR 75%Green✓ 112–102
- Fri, 23 OctAtlanta Hawks @ Charlotte Hornets ATL 54%Red✓ 128–81
- Fri, 23 OctDallas Mavericks @ Indiana Pacers IND 60%Orange✕ 121–105
- Fri, 23 OctNew York Knicks @ Boston Celtics NY 56%Orange✕ 103–107
- Fri, 23 OctDetroit Pistons @ Miami Heat DET 51%Red✓ 128–111
- Fri, 23 OctNew Orleans Pelicans @ Utah Jazz UTAH 54%Red✓ 119–120
- Fri, 23 OctPortland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings POR 73%Green✓ 128–120
- Fri, 23 OctLA Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers LAL 74%Green✓ 117–125
- Fri, 23 OctMemphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors GS 60%Orange✕ 111–108
Probabilities come from ProbaLab's own model. They are for entertainment, not advice. How it works.